How a Raging River Improved the Way I Make Decisions

By Dino Tartaglia.

As I write this, I'm in my apartment in the beautiful city of Wrocław, Poland. The photo you see of the Oder River - one of the two rivers that pass through the city and give it its fantastic character - was taken from my balcony this morning.

I arrived in the city two days ago but didn't get here without a few challenges. You see, there have been enormous (and devastating) floods across Central Europe over the last couple of weeks, and Lower Silesia, the region of Poland most affected by this, has had significant issues just north and south of Wrocław.

(BTW, if you have never heard 'Wrocław' pronounced properly before, it's a bit different from what you might expect. In Polish, W is a 'V', C is pronounced 'TS' (as in 'Cats') in most cases, and the L with a line through it ['ł'] is a W…so 'Wrocław' is pronounced 'Vrots-Wav')

Anywho, I mentioned challenges…

See, the problem I faced was that I needed to be in the city for some health checks, BUT my friends there told me that the flood warnings were pretty significant and that I might be best advised to wait a fortnight or so. The trouble with this was that I didn't have a fortnight to play with.

So, I needed to put my Critical Thinking skills into gear and figure out the best decision - go as planned or find another solution that didn't involve going to Wrocław.

Here's the Decision-Making process I went through:

Start At The End. Steven Covey got it wrong (I have respect for the man, but on this, we disagree [a little]). Don't "Start with the end in mind" Start AT the end. GO there. BE there.

Figure out what you want and why it matters - really matters - by experiencing the feeling of the benefits before they've happened. 

And 'experience' the impact of what happens if you DON'T do this.

Examine what else you could do that would provide the same (or a similar) outcome.

That's pretty much what I did to evaluate why I felt the need to be in Wrocław.

• What were the benefits? 
• What would be the impact of NOT being here and getting these things dealt with? 
• What other viable options could I explore? 

After a LOT of thinking and reflection, I concluded that this had to happen now IF it was viable. And the contingency was a more expensive and convoluted solution in Portugal, which I rated as about 60% as effective/preferable compared to the Wrocław solution. Doable but less than ideal.

So, now that my first option was decided, what was my next step?

Take The Data Out of The Drama! 

This has been one of my favourite pieces of wisdom for…well… ever, it seems.

Way back when I was a troubleshooting engineer, this was something we lived by. Don't listen to the stories & the drama you're being told when you visit an office to fix something. Dig into the facts - what ACTUALLY happened in what sequence…? 

What was Jayne doing when the photocopier stopped working? What had Bob pressed on his keyboard just before the screen went blank and wouldn't come back on?

Ignore the "No-one touched it; it just stopped working" or "I didn't do anything" responses you get when you ask, "SO, what happened?"

All you're interested in are the facts and, where possible, the chronological sequence leading up to the issue, not the emotionally charged version of events that you're being fed. (NOTE: this applies equally to us, where we 'buy our own story' or have already made an emotional decision and go looking for things to validate that (Confirmation Bias).

In business and in the case of this specific decision to travel, the clinical, critical thinking process looks like this:

I ask myself THREE questions:

1. What data do I have access to?
2. How can I rely on it as valid & useful?
3. What does it tell me?

For Wrocław, here's how this played out:

1. There were two primary sources of data: the news from experts & other sources that could be cross-checked and official flood-update alerts.

2. The challenge was that the news largely predicted a 'Level 4' or edge of 'Level 5' event, but flood alerts were skewed to preparing for Level 6, which is a natural disaster event. The other issue was that a large proportion of the population viscerally remembered the 1997 flood, where the city was unprepared for three rivers merging outside the city, creating a massive wave that put much of the city underwater. 

So there was understandable anxiety (and some panic) everywhere.

3. What became clear once I'd compared and contrasted the data was that the city's flood defences since '97 would largely protect the centre (where I was staying and moving around) from a Level 6 and probably even a Level 5 outcome. Furthermore, the real threat, a surge wave that marks the peak of the flood threat, was likely to hit the city the day I left, probably 12-15 hours later.

Now that there was clarity on what intelligence I could rely on and what I could reasonably dismiss, I booked accommodation that placed me right over the river so I could monitor the situation, arranged my blood tests and other appointments, and the trip was nailed on.

But what if things took an unexpected turn? What if I simply got this wrong??

NEVER Rely on a Single Option.

There are three things you should always pay attention to in any endeavour to give yourself the best possible outcome: 

1. Mitigate Risk
2. Reduce Effort/Friction
3. Increase Options

In this case, 2. was less critical to getting a positive outcome, but being unable to fly home on Thursday/Friday would have created a world of problems. So 1. & 3., especially 3. - Increase Options - was critical. 

In short, always have a contingency plan. 

For me, as it was clear that my first day in the city would definitely be 'undisturbed', that meant working out how to exit the city and fly home from another airport should the worst case surface. Once this was worked out, I knew I could arrive in the city, go about my business and relax, knowing that if Option 1 failed (flying home on Thursday morning from Wrocław), I had a backup plan I had complete confidence in.

Conviction, what our American cousins often call 'Certainty', is just the confluence of Clarity & Confidence. When you get both of these lined up in anything you are going to tackle or embark upon, the resulting conviction isn't in what will happen but in your ability to navigate and negotiate what happens. 

This is a critical shift in your development as a human and business owner because the path is never 'certain'. What enables you to step solidly onto it is your conviction in YOU, in your ability and capacity to handle whatever is thrown at you, and this thinking & decision-making process adapted to your unique disposition, will hopefully move you much closer to having flexible approaches that enable you to get the outcomes you want more often.

In time, this will build your confidence and, in turn, strengthen your conviction and your ability to tackle any situation or chase any aspiration.

Summary and a Word about R4 

If (or when) you join us in Success Unlocked, our beautiful Community of brilliant humans, you'll discover our 'R4'Decision-Making framework, which enhances and simplifies how to make Better Business Decisions. 

•  Reframe
•  Remove Yourself
•  Reality Check
•  Responsibility 

For now, stick with the process shared here: 

•  Clarify What You Want & Why It Matters (is this outcome REALLY necessary?)
•  Remove the Data from the Drama (be clinical, not emotional)
•  Validate the Data (what intelligence can you actually rely on?)
•  Mitigate Risk (increase your Upside)
•  Increase your Options (have at least one Contingency)

I truly hope this proves useful for you.

If you'd like to get more of this thinking and further insights that will help you on your Success Journey, feel free to connect with me or contact me directly. You can reach me via any of the mechanisms/contact info below.

Better still, experience being directly coached by Simon & me in our thriving Community *free* for 30 days. 

To your inevitable success

Dino 

*UPDATE* I held this article open to catch the aftermath of the surge wave. I'm pleased to report that the city experienced minimal flooding, with most homes and businesses avoiding any impact other than minimal disruption to deliveries, etc.. At the same time, bridges and roads were closed to let the wave pass through the city.

Dino Tartaglia is a former Electronics Engineer, now a businessman, mentor, coach and troubleshooter working to help you, if you’re a coach, consultant, creative or service provider, to Build a Joyful, Dependable Business around Being Brilliant at What You Do. 

In his own coaching, and together with world-class coach Simon Hartley, the other half of Success Engineers (their joint business), he helps you to improve your thinking to ask better questions, so that you solve the right problems in your business at the right time, develop your own personal performance as a business owner and get closer to What Matters Most. 

You can find Dino in our FB Group , on his  website or on any of these other locations; Facebook | LinkedIn | Twitter | Instagram |PodCast - Back Bedroom to Big Business